Decision Simplifying Equation

I have been engaging in public speaking for a bit now. Most of the times, I end up talking about entrepreneurship, multi-tasking and technology. My audience is either soon-be-graduating students or entry-level professionals. After the talk I get email enquires which I promptly reply as well. In such inquiry mails, I have seen a trend. Most people are confused about how to evaluate situations or people before making their choices. Personally, I have often found myself in similar situations and have tried to come up with an equation just to make my life a little easier (Also, being Statistical Modeling professional, I prefer equations which I can plug-and-play values for better clarity.)

So what is this ‘decision simplifying equation’ and why do I call it so? I’m totally against giving advice and trust adults need to make their own decisions. Lack of decision making ability implies lack of vision. You don’t need to be ‘visionary’, but not having a vision is not pardonable. The biggest problem with those without a vision, end up following someone else’s. When someone comes to me for advice, I believe it is my duty to help people analyze their situations, and let them make their own choices. Here is a generic guideline to analyze a situation or perhaps even people. (Yes, there is a difference in between analyzing someone and judging someone.)

Situations usually have some positive factors and some negative. If a situation is all positive or all negative, the choice is very straightforward. Let us say, a situation S is described as a combination of positives (P1, P2, P3…) and negatives (N1, N2, N3…). Let’s say you want to determine a prospective outcome O, which will simplify your decision. Intuitively, it is tempting to express O = (P1+ P2+P3+…) – (N1+N2+N3+…). Well, this is where I differ. I view, O = Largest (N1, N2, N3…). Let me put it numbers, to simplify this concept.

Say, S is dependent on P(1,7,3,4) and N(2,4,1).

In this case,        

O ≠ (1+7+3+4) – (2+4+1)

O ≠ 15 – 7

O ≠ 8

But O = Largest (2, 4, 1). O = - 4

To put the above equations in English, our outcomes depend mostly on the greatest negative factor that is associated with it. Knowing the biggest negative factor helps us understand the most dreadful prospective outcome. This helps us decide in favor or against the choices we are poised with. The positive factors are just bonus and we should not get carried away, relying on them. The additional trick is to evaluate each of the associated factors correctly, which comes with experience and discretion. 

The Accidental Choice

A King wanted to find the best groom for his daughter. A key measure in those days was ability to perform a task of bravery. The King’s minister suggested a dare, in which anyone who wishes to marry the princess would have to swim across a pond which had 10 starving crocodiles. Falling for the princess’ beauty and the wealth of the kingdom, almost everyone wanted to compete. As each man went near the pond, they were terrified by the sight of pond containing hungry crocodiles. The crowed on the banks of the pond grew further but none tried their luck.

In a while, there was a splashy sound and everyone noticed a young man swimming with all his energy. He tried as hard he could and managed to get to the other end. No sooner was he out of the pond, the cheering and celebration began. While he was still catching his breath, the king’s men dragged him to the arena for honoring him. He was honored and asked to speak a few words.

He began by saying, “I have two things to say. The second point first… whose idea was it to have just four real crocodiles and six fake ones. I would like to thank him for inducing greater fear in everyone's mind. I discovered this, when I was already in the water. And now the first one, who the hell pushed me into the pond? I did not jump on my own, but someone wanted to seek amusement by my death. I swam fast to save my life, more than anything else.”

So, here’s my observation  about the story:

• Accidental choices may turn out well, if you execute well.
• If you push someone with a hope to test them, and they end up executing well, they will achieve the highs which you once dreamt of.
• Some fears are exaggerated ones. To verify it, you should be willing to take chances.
• You do your best when it's a question of life and death.
• Finally, if a princess is being offered, it would not be a cakewalk to get her. Along with bravery, use some strategy to make her yours.