Monty Hall Problem: Explained

The “Monty Hall Problem” is one of the classic mathematical problems which has entertained many and puzzled equivalent number of people. You will agree with me if you are already familiar with it and in case if you are hearing the term ‘Monty Hall Problem’, for the first time, I wouldn’t ask you to shoot yourself. The whole purpose of writing this post is to make more people familiar with this problem. It goes like this…

Imagine you are a participant in a game show. The game is about selecting from three closed doors, behind one is a posh car and behind the other two are goats. Obviously, as a participant, your aim is not to carry home a goat, but the posh car. Upon making your choice, the host, who has prior information about the position of the car, shows you a door, which you haven’t selected and has a goat. Now, he again offers you to make a choice, from the remaining two doors, behind one is a goat and behind other is a car. So, your chances of winning the car shoot up to 50%. As easy as it sounds, right? Now, here kicks in the math which makes this seemingly simple problem complex, easy if you are among those math geeks. Initially, your probability of winning the car was 1/3. That means your probability of losing was 2/3. The moment one of the door behind which there is a goat, is opened, you can increase your chances of winning the car to 2/3, simply by switching your earlier choice. This switch accounts to the variable change, which is like choosing two out of the three doors, initially. Of course a lot of people don’t realize this trick, and fail to take advantage of the second opportunity.

Didn’t I tell you the problem seems easy, but isn’t quite as easy as it seems to be. To make things clear, I created an illustrative picture of the same. So, here let us say, you selected D3. So, the initial probability of winning is 1/3. Once the host shows the goat behind D1, and if you switch to D2 from D1, the combined probability of D1 & D2 still remains 2/3. Finally this switch in choice is what gets you that posh car, behind D2.

Finally, don’t curse me for posting a problem and a solution, none of which I have created. I never claimed that, did I? The only aim to write this article is make more people aware of this classic mathematical problem. Another subtle message which this problem teaches us is, life seldom shows you a small example of the wrong choice that you made. And when it does, switch your choices. It may increase your winning possibility!

PS: If you interested to know more about this problem, please check out the Wikipedia page: Monty Hall Problem

Benefits of Tagging

The worst thing that can happen to someone in love is being more than friend but less than a lover.

~ Alvin Kwardi

These advancing times have made me realize a new trend. The trend of, showing a total resentment towards recognizing a relation as it actually is. The term ‘friend’ has become so generic that when someone introduces you as a friend; it’s not as easy to interpret, as it used to be earlier. Those who feel tags and labels are best suited for products at a super market and should be kept out of relationships, are missing a point. I too do not advocate the practice of putting a tag or label on relationships as we are humans and not products sold at a super market. Having said that I find it a little hypocritical when people fail to call a spade, a spade.

In such a case, what is the possible point am I trying to make? From the past couple of months, I have had enough time to have discussions on various topics with people, I think, whose frequency matches to that of mine. One such discussion made it easy for me to make my point. The second most essential factor after trust, in a strong relation is clear communication. By keeping off from being clear, we would only give a chance for assumptions and doubts to crop up. Make no mistake; the person on the other side can never understand what is going on in your mind on all instances. This is the thumb rule for every relation, and this covers your blood relations too. The point is, don’t put a tag for other’s sake, do it for your own benefit. Recognizing things the way they are is better than subtle hints, which never work, especially in the matters of heart, at least in reality.

Take this for example. If a guy and a girl were, let us say, more than friends and these are the possibilities. 1) The guy is serious and the girl isn’t 2) The girl is serious and the guy isn’t 3) Both the guy and girl are serious 4) Both the guy and the girl are casual about it

In each of these four cases, imagine the down side, if silence did the talking. In the first and the second case, the guy and girl will end up with a broken heart respectively. In the third case, things may work out after a delay. Imagine how much fun the two would have to miss in the fourth case, if you know what I mean. Do you see an upside, without recognizing the relations, the way they are?

Merit, Popularity and Wages

If you read these three words, merit, popularity and wages together, you probably will connect them with this logic; High merit will get you high popularity and thereby get you high wages. Agreed, that’s mostly how it works in the times we live in. But life has more unpredictable circumstances which makes smarter choices, a rarity.

An online dictionary defines merit as a) a superior quality or worth b) a quality deserving praise. Going by that definition a lot of names pop up in my mind which don’t fit that bill, yet are widely popular. So, would it be okay to conclude that popularity has got little to do with merit? Probably yes. Let’s try it out. Among these names which ones you recollect without much effort and which ones you are hearing for the first time. Limba Ram, Murli Karthik, S Ramesh Babu. Though Limba Ram is far more meritorious an archer (he represented India in three Olympics) compared to Murli Karthik as a cricketer, I know whom you recognized. I bet you haven’t even heard of Dr S Ramesh Babu from Bangalore. He is credited to some world records and his name features in the Guinness Book of World Record.

Then, let’s try to find the connection between merit and wages. One of the best example I can cite, which certainly will not make me popular amongst some of my friends, is the earnings of a typical techie and a typical journo. At different points in my life, I have had the chance of working for technology companies as well as a freelance writer. I made far less money as a freelance writer. Having seen both the sides, I can safely conclude that the job of a journo/writer is far more intellectually challenging than that of an average techie. Also, I have the privilege of having friends from both fractions. Trust me; the journos seem more knowledgeable and wiser as well. Leaving aside a few exceptions, a journo, though more deserving, earns much lesser than a techie.

Why do you think such irrationality exists? Maybe the phrase, “being in the right place, at the right time”, gives a better explanation to this counter-intuitive nature of the relation between merit, popularity and wages. To me, the true measure of merit will always remain in one’s ability to inspire. If you do agree with me on this, the next time it would be inevitable for you to throw that sarcastic smile at those who attribute high wages only to high merit.

Skepticism Spares None

"Let every eye negotiate for itself
And trust no agent; for beauty is a witch
Against whose charms faith melteth in blood."
- William Shakespeare

I’m way too ordinary to critique William Shakespeare. As I have never been a student of literature, I have never had an opportunity to read some of his master pieces (which I regret quite often than not). The only work of Shakespeare which I fully appreciate (read as understood) is a poem called “A Lover’s Complaint” This is a short narrative poem which talks about a young woman at the riverside weeping, destroying the love tokens such as letters, rings etc. It wouldn’t take a rocket scientist to guess about her breakup. What astonishes readers is the last part. As she describes how she fell for his fake charm earlier, she also reveals that she would fall for him once again. Well, love can prompt you make counterintuitive choices.

Anyway, my point of focus is not the above poem. It’s about a few people challenging the authorship of this poem. The basis on which few felt that it wasn’t Shakespeare’s original work is the words that are used in the poem are not the ones found in Shakespearean. I was a little shattered to know an allegation made against one of the greatest playwright in English language. Call it ironical, the poem seen as contentious for its authorship, turns out to be my favorite one. This prompted me to look up for substance in this matter. As I spent long hours on the Internet, I came across a term, Oxfordian theory of Shakespeare authorship. This theory developed by scholars gives rise to belief that all the work which we attribute to Shakespeare was original work of Edward de Vere. However the coincidences that have been cited by these pundits cannot be used as core evidence. In such matters it’s a matter of belief. Yes, skepticism spares none, especially the greats.

Still a majority of scholars don’t pay much heed to the Oxfordian theory. In this case, I opine same as the scholars. Back in India, almost every year there is some sort of controversy picks up the heat on Gandhi’s life-style, ideas, sexuality, to name a few. Again there is a majority that rejects the controversy while the minority supports it. Probably, greater you are, the more you need to stand test of skepticism. What convinces me to reject the Oxfordian theory is the question, how the hell did Shakespeare manage to deceive so many people, across the globe. And, if plagiarism was the way, why haven’t other plagiarist gone on to become half as popular as the great William Shakespeare?

PS: If you liked this post, watch out for this forthcoming movie called Anonymous

Time to move on…

It’s amazing how simple events, if observed carefully, teach us so much in life. And this observation comes with experience and situations that you face. Especially when you are lonely, have excess time to kill, you pick up on observation.

I grew up with the belief that relationships are complicated. My observation revealed that people’s feelings get hurt more often than not. And by relationships, I don’t imply those romantic relations. Try it out yourself. Break your life in the intervals of 5 years, starting from 0 to 5, 5 to 10 and so on. Now count the people whom you have added to your life and those whom you have deleted from your life in these intervals. Seems like a lot of faces have changed… right? Only a handful of them may have remained constant. That being the case getting involved too seriously in any sort of relation may seem counter intuitive.

A week ago, my phone stopped working for some reason. I have had this phone for nearly 5 years now and as you can guess I had many names in my contact list. To be specific, 108 names, some with multiple phone numbers. Though I got it fixed I lost all the contacts it had. So, I started recollecting the phone numbers of those people who mattered to me. Yes, only 23 of them, I could. Does it mean the rest whom I knew in the past five years or so, no longer mattered to me? Probably yes. It didn’t hurt to be frank in this matter. What would hurt is letting someone go, whose phone number is still on the tip of my tongue yet situations were forcing me to keep off from that person. I reassessed this simple incident quite a few times. The only message which my mind echoed was, “Veej, life has changed and it’s the best time to move on…”

The Problems faced by my Generation

Before I write any further let me explain the term ‘my generation’. It would have been great to be born in the 70’s when the hippie movement was at its peak, music all over the world was at its best and a new wave of hope sweeping a newly formed nation. Alas that didn’t happen and I belong to that generation which lost its innocence around mid-to-late-90’s.Like every generation, my generation too can be identified with some of the peculiarities. Of course I do not wish to stereotype every individual with the ongoing trends.

Looking back I feel we got exposure a little later than what we should ideally have. Probably most people feel this way, looking back. I was hinting at cell phones and internet. Whether that’s good or bad is left to an individual to decide. The two main issues I would like to write on are seen in dime-a-dozen.

1) Failed Relationships

2) Excessive use of Social Networking sites

Failed relationships cannot be classified as a problem with my generation alone. This problem has existed perpetually and would continue to exist. The reason I opted to highlight this was because of the current age group of people in my generation. Hell, those heartbreaks, arguments, negotiations and compromises. Most of us are overboard with these bitter facts of life. Not too long ago, did we imagine undergoing such experiences. The current teenagers would probably be better off at facing such situations. They simply have more exposure at the right age and better understanding as well. Times and situations change so quickly in developing countries that a decade’s gap brings in the whole element of generation gap.

If you have seen the movie ‘The Social Network’ you would realize the basis on which facebook was found. My generation loves to document every emotion in their life, every action they took and every wish they have, at that moment. This has only made it worse to build and sustain new relationships as people are realizing the six degrees of separation theory isn’t a fragment of imagination. In that case it wouldn’t take a rocket scientist to predict your nature, your past and your present just by spying on your social networking presence. To make situations less embarrassing, deleting a particular post, deleting a particular person from your list of friends, and other clean up measures, is what the pundits recommend. Is it all really worth or is avoiding social networking sites a silver bullet?

As they say, there exists a problem, only if there exists a solution. Though I’m not a master in this topic and can be counted among those struggling ones, I feel that being responsible would help us make things more resolved. If you already know that your deeds are going to be visible to the world, wouldn’t it make more sense to be cautious. Prevent and prepare would be a bigger guru-mantra than repent and repair.

Stereotypes: Causes & Effect

I’m back after a long break and guess my next article will be after a long break too. I have been working on few things and till they are done, I will be irregular here.

It’s been a while since I got back home and thought it would be good to post an article, based on some of my observations and experiences. Of course I don’t intend to advocate drinking bottled water, wear shades and a pollution mask to beat the Indian heat and polluted environment. I sense a fair amount of discomfort when hear stereotypes like these.

To begin with, a TV commercial, from country’s leading car maker, which goes by the base line, “Hindustani hai hum” (meaning “We are Indians”). There are three or four ads which go with this line, each of them portraying a less remarkable deed. If you do need to understand, what I’m talking about, check out the series of latest Maruti Suzuki ads on youtube. What are the effects of such ads? Firstly, semi-educated Indians, who leave India, befriend a couple of foreigners, proudly show them these ads and ensure our image is tarnished. Already the stereotype that exists is consolidated. I’ve lived almost all my life in India and have never asked to pack the leftover bits of food, from a restaurant. I bet you will find a whole lot of people like me. Is it an ‘unlike Indian’ practice that I’m following? Or aren’t there foreigners who asked to pack the leftover food at a restaurant? In such a case, why badmouth our culture and give a chance to build a stereotype.

I know Bangalore traffic sucks, sucks big time. I returned to the city after a while and was expecting the traffic to be lot worse than what it really is. I have been surprised more often than not by the congested traffic, which is better compared to many large cities around the world. The thing with us is that we channelize our energies to condemn our city, state, country, culture et al. Our media too seems to capitalize on this mindset.

I have set two rules for myself to overcome such situations. One, never focus only on negatives when there is fair amount of positives present around us. Two, unless in a position to suggest a solution and put it in practice, why bother commenting on the shortcomings.

Regarding stereotype, I too have my own. People are more or less the same, round the world, with more or less similar aspirations.

A Lesson from Our Scriptures

Just a few days ago, the Supreme Court of India termed Dronacharya’s act as shameful. Now this gave rise to many questions in my mind. I felt it was essential to answer these questions and here goes this article.

The times today we live in, it would be likely that a child would have mastered how to use facebook or twitter, but may still fail to recognize who Dronacharya was. For those, he was the guru of the Pandavas in Mahabharata. His acumen in archery was such that if he taught this art, his pupils were guaranteed to excel. So in today’s terms, if he was to be made of the Indian Archery team in Olympics, it would assure us a gold medal in all the relevant events.

Which act of his, did our SC condemn? If you have not read the Mahabharata, I strongly recommend you to read it. Of course if you have no time, I will cut the long story short for you. Dronacharya’s favorite pupil was Arjuna. His bias towards Arjuna was such that he could barely stand any archer better than him. In the backdrop of this, Ekalavya, who didn’t have the royal blood like Arjuna did, mastered this art. That being the reason, Dronacharya wouldn’t teach him. But for his reputation as a master, Ekalavya worshipped his statue and practiced rigorously to enhance his skills. And when Dronacharya came across such a self proclaimed student, who was from a lower caste, had never taken a lesson but was probably way better an archer then the great Arjuna was, he just couldn’t digest these facts. And when such a student offered him any gift of his choice, he demanded for his thumb, which would leave him with no further ability as an archer. But being a devoted student, Ekalavya did this with pleasure. This act which displayed egoistic nature of the guru, bigotry, and a weird degree of injustice is certainly condemnable.

Is it relevant in today’s context? Certainly, if you ask me. A teacher is one, who imparts his / her knowledge on us and guides us in the right direction. Regardless of times, it’s very essential for a teacher to set highest standards of ethics. We always look up to our teachers, be it whatever. If a student makes mistakes, that’s correctable. But if a teacher makes it, there is hardly any authority that could control the damage it does. Being a teacher is not just about how sharp you are in your area, but also important to play it fair and set a right example.

This was one of many such timeless lessons from the epic, I felt like sharing with my readers. So, I hope if you ever get an opportunity to be a teacher, please do your duties in all fairness. I dedicate this article to my parents and all those wonderful teachers I have had in life.

Happiness: Explained

True happiness is not attained through self gratification, but through fidelity to a worthy purpose

– Helen Keller

I love to kick start my writing with a catchy line. And since I was running short of one of those, I decided to borrow one from Helen Keller. Well, here I’m writing about a simple question, whose answer is not-so-simple. The question, what is true happiness? Think for a couple of moments and if you have a satisfactory explanation, don’t bother reading any further. Else…

Scientifically speaking, happiness is a state of mind in which the chemical composition of brain changes, making the person experiencing this change, feel good. Alright, then what triggers this? This question is highly individualistic in nature. Because different people think differently. And as per me, different people should think differently. To some happiness could be writing a poem, to some, listening to a particular genre of music, while to some others it could be sitting with friends sipping some whiskey.

This highly personal nature of the phenomenon of happiness has brought in a fair amount of confusion amongst people. So, our society constantly tries to define the boundaries for being happy. These could range anywhere from having a dinner at the fanciest hotel with your family to owning a luxury car. To my observation, the capitalist society tries to brainwash people by linking happiness to materialistic possessions. Essentially there is no relation in between being happy and possessing tons of wealth. Quite often than not, confused souls fall prey to this trick and then starts their pursuit of accumulating wealth. People get so much overboard with this idea that they forget what they really wanted, when they started this blind folded run.

What amuses me is that when few (very few, indeed) show no interests in the pattern set by society, people make no hesitation in concluding their being abnormal. On the other hand if you crave for all the luxuries in life, it is considered perfectly normal. I find this just hard to digest. Probably many succumb to this sort of pressure and alter their thinking in life. By the time they realize their mistakes, their grand children would be about to make the same mistake. Life… happens.

It is possible to happy sans having any wealth but seldom without being able to share your feelings. I will leave you with this thought. Amongst all your happy moments so far, how many times do you remember yourself happy because of "things" and "not people"?